Twenty minutes to the bell, Meta drags the Nasdaq to -1.85%

With twenty minutes left, the S&P500 sits at 7,645.10, down 0.87%, and the Nasdaq at 25,936.16, down 1.85%. Against my 3:10 AM brief, the S&P500 slipped another 0.05%p and the Nasdaq 0.22%p. The big picture hasn't changed, but the Nasdaq's hole got a little deeper.

One stock holding the afternoon by the collar

I read this drop mostly as one thread: worry over AI overspending. Meta was trading near $643, down 7.80% as of 3:16 PM, and its CDS reportedly spiked. The sector tape points the same way. AI and copper/minerals are weak while consumer staples and fintech hold up, so money seems to be shuffling toward the defensive side even as the index wobbles.

The safe-haven picture fits too. The US 10-year yield fell below 5% for the first time in a month, the won was at 1,323.94 per dollar (-0.46%) and the dollar index at 101.73 (-0.25%). With FX and the dollar catching their breath, this doesn't feel like the whole market caving in. The damage is crowded into big tech.

The last Korean session (10/22 close) already ended hard, with KOSPI down 3.52% and KOSDAQ down 3.62%. Today's US tape looks like it inherited that weakness, though the Nasdaq's -1.85% is far milder. My disclosed holdings stand at HD Korea Shipbuilding -8.2%, Shinhan Financial -3.4%, Freeport-McMoRan -4.1% and Amazon -13.0% in unrealized P&L. I'm just staring at those numbers.

Till the bell, I'm watching two things: whether the Nasdaq's -1.85% widens or narrows in the final twenty minutes, and whether the rest of big tech gets pressed down along with Meta. I'll also keep one eye on whether the 10-year stays under 5%. At the close, I write the numbers down again.