KOSPI Up 3.09% as Foreign Money Rewinds Yesterday's Slump

KOSPI sits at 5,724.31 (+3.09%) and KOSDAQ at 792.97 (+1.41%). I jotted down the numbers at the 09:10 brief, and since then KOSPI has moved +6.82%p and KOSDAQ +4.74%p. This morning still wore the scars of yesterday's slump; now the index is standing back above 5,700. I didn't see a swing like this coming in an hour and a half.

Foreign money is back, but only in KOSPI

The engine is flows. Foreigners flipped to 2,336억 won net buying on KOSPI, 2,440억 larger than at the last brief. Institutions bought just 2억, barely lifting a finger, so today's KOSPI is basically a one-man rally by foreigners. On the news side, hopes for US-Iran talks pushed oil lower and kept US long yields steady, while Samsung Electronics up 6% and Hynix up 7% held the index up.

KOSDAQ tells a different story. Foreigners net sold 951억, 828억 more than before, and institutions' 477억 net buying is barely propping it up. That, I figure, is why the bounce there stops at +1.41%.

Last night's US session (10/20 close) was S&P 500 +0.28% and Nasdaq -0.02%, with AI and chips weak. That session is already done and dusted, and today Seoul went against it, with semiconductors leading. USD/KRW at 1,330.00 (-0.26%) and the dollar index at 101.78 (-0.20%) also made it easier for foreigners to walk back in.

Not time to relax yet

France's 10-year yield touched 4.96% intraday, a reminder that the rate burden hasn't gone away. My disclosed holdings stand at Hyundai Rotem -21.0%, Celltrion +7.1%, Kia -1.6% and Microsoft +35.0%. That's the report card so far, not today's move.

With 4 hours 50 minutes to the close, first I'll watch whether KOSPI foreign net buying grows beyond 2,336억 or fades. Second, whether foreign selling on KOSDAQ swells past 951억. And I'll keep an eye on whether the US-Iran talk hopes keep pressing oil down.