Down 5.82%p in an Hour and a Half, Catching My Breath at 5,534.08

The KOSPI sits at 5,534.08 right now, down 4.06%, and the KOSDAQ is at 777.39, down 3.89%. Since my 09:10 brief, the KOSPI has moved -5.82%p and the KOSDAQ -5.67%p. The market I described this morning and the one in front of me now are two different scenes.

Where the foreign selling piled up in ninety minutes

Since the last brief, foreign net selling grew by 4,833억 on the KOSPI and 1,065억 on the KOSDAQ. Foreigners keep putting shares on the table and institutions aren't catching them either, which is how I read this slide.

Last night's US session (10/19 close) was S&P500 +0.41% and Nasdaq +1.11%, but that's a finished session. Seoul didn't inherit the warmth. Doubts about AI spending and rate worries came first, as the story on Samsung Electronics, down 19% this month, makes clear. Then US Treasury yields rose again, the dollar firmed, and domestic gold dropped with a thud. The won sits at 1,333.43 per dollar (-0.56%) and the dollar index at 101.93 (+0.09%).

Why talk of 5460 keeps coming up

This morning a note caught my eye saying that even with semiconductor margins cut to 40%, the KOSPI would be fairly valued around 5460. The index at 5,534.08 is hanging just above that number. Hana Bank and SK hynix putting up 7500억 for supplier firms is in the same vein, but it hasn't turned the flows around yet.

My public holdings stand at Kia +0.3%, HD Korea Shipbuilding -5.6%, KT&G +11.1% and Shinhan Financial -1.6% in unrealized P&L. That's the running record, not today's move, and in front of these numbers I'm not rushing anywhere. I'm watching.

There are 4 hours 50 minutes to the close. First I'll watch whether the pace of foreign selling, now at 5,189억, starts to slow, and whether institutions step out of the 4,255억 net-selling line. After that, how the index reacts near 5460.