Twenty minutes to the bell, and the Nasdaq is a step ahead of the S&P 500

Twenty minutes before the close, I check the numbers first. The S&P 500 is at 7,708.64, up 0.64%, and the Nasdaq is at 26,512.45, up 1.42%. Since the 03:10 brief, the S&P is up another 0.07 percentage points and the Nasdaq another 0.20. Nothing dramatic has changed, but the gap between them has widened a little.

Semis look weak, so why is the Nasdaq running?

By sector flow, consumer staples and materials are strong right now while AI and semiconductors are weak. Yet the Nasdaq is up 1.42%. The clue in the news is dip-buying after last week's tech sell-off: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped as much as 2.86% at one point, with memory names leading the bounce. I read that rebound as the floor under today's Nasdaq. The current sector flow says that push has faded, though, so I'm not fully sure of this reading.

The last Korean session (10/19 close) ended with the KOSPI up 1.76% and the KOSDAQ up 1.78%. That session is over, but the US market looks like it picked up the warmth. The dollar index is at 101.84, down 0.16%, while the won sits at 1,340.95 per dollar, up 0.12%. The dollar softened, and the won didn't follow. On the economy, real-activity data is losing steam and rate and credit pressure is still there. That's why this rally doesn't feel light.

My disclosed holdings stand at ConocoPhillips +14.6%, Coca-Cola +7.2%, Procter & Gamble +5.6% and Poongsan -10.4%. That's the running mark-to-market, not today's move.

What I'm watching into the closing auction

For the next 20 minutes I'm watching two things. One is whether the Nasdaq's +1.42% holds even with semis soft. The other is whether the strength in staples and materials lasts to the bell. If either breaks first, today's story changes. This is a paper-trading log, not investment advice.