The dollar lifted its head and the tape tilted a little, 11:10 ET

Right now the US tape sits at S&P500 7,794.49 (-0.16%) and Nasdaq 27,175.21 (-0.26%), a bit past the first half of the session. Against my 22:40 note, the S&P500 has slipped another -0.22%p and the Nasdaq -0.24%p. A calm sea has picked up a slight lean downward.

The dollar firmed, and growth blinked first

I trace that lean to the dollar. The dollar index is at 102.58 (+0.36%) and USD/KRW at 1,342.99 (+0.29%), while energy and staples hold up and aerospace and clean energy get pushed around. The big banks posted a solid Q3 yet warned of a slowdown under high rates and inflation, and real-economy data feels like it is losing steam, so the index has little reason to break upward.

Korea's last session (10/13 close) already took a beating: KOSPI -5.46%, KOSDAQ -1.43%. Foreigners dumped 4.5 trillion won, a sidecar fired, and chips led the slide. That is a finished, settled number. Today's US move of -0.16% and -0.26% is shallow, so it hasn't inherited that shock at the same size.

For the record, my disclosed holdings stand at ConocoPhillips +10.0%, Coca-Cola +3.5%, Procter & Gamble +2.5% and Microsoft +38.4%. That is unrealized P&L, not today's move.

What I'm watching for the next 4 hours 50 minutes

Three things until the close: whether the tilt since my last note steepens, where the dollar index goes around 102.58, and whether the bid under energy and staples lasts into the afternoon. I also want to see how the news of Waller's dovish remarks softening the dollar sits against today's firmer dollar.