Twenty minutes in, oil at $105 has the chips sagging and the Nasdaq leading the slide
Right after the open, the S&P 500 sits at 7,774.86 (-0.34%) and the Nasdaq at 27,397.82 (-0.51%). Against the 04:40 brief, the S&P 500 is down another 0.05 percentage points and the Nasdaq another 0.16. Not a big gap, but unlike an hour ago, tech is clearly the heavier side.
| Index | Now | Change | Vs. prior brief |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,774.86 | -0.34% | -0.05%p |
| Nasdaq | 27,397.82 | -0.51% | -0.16%p |
Oil at $105 hit the chips first
The reason I'd pin on the Nasdaq lagging is one piece of pre-market news. With Middle East tension flaring, oil punched through $105, Treasury yields added pressure, and major chip stocks fell together. The dollar index is 102.24, up 0.40%, while the won is at 1,339.74 per dollar (-0.30%). Sectors tell the same tale: utilities and cybersecurity are firm, biotech is soft, as if the market is ducking toward defense.
Weekly jobless claims came in at 197,000, below expectations, yet that didn't lift the tape. Fed Governor Waller said he expects more hikes but not back-to-back ones, and that doesn't seem enough to quiet the rate worries.
Korea's weakness carried over, but it's a different animal
The last Korean session (10/8 close) is already in the books: KOSPI -2.62%, KOSDAQ -0.69%. The US followed that weakness, but today's drop is nowhere near the Korean close. My disclosed holdings stand at Poongsan -8.8%, KT&G +2.0%, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. +5.7% and Amazon.com Inc. -9.6% in unrealized P&L. That's the running record, not today's move.
What I'm watching into the close
There are 6 hours 20 minutes left. First, whether oil holds above $105, and whether chip weakness deepens beyond the Nasdaq's -0.51%. In the next brief, I'll start with whether that gap narrowed or widened.