Yields shook the room first, but the dip has quietly narrowed
Right now the S&P 500 sits at 7,791.53, down 0.35%, and the Nasdaq at 27,462.95, down 0.50%. Compared with the 22:40 brief, the S&P 500 has clawed back 0.25 percentage points and the Nasdaq 0.35. Still sliding, but clearly breathing easier than before.
| Index | Now | Change | vs. prior brief |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,791.53 | -0.35% | +0.25pp |
| Nasdaq | 27,462.95 | -0.50% | +0.35pp |
The bond market frowned first
This started with bonds, not stocks. The 10-year yield hit its highest since April 2002 intraday, and the 30-year renewed its 24-year high. Swap markets put the odds of a Fed hike this month at around 25%, which is how I explain the Nasdaq feeling heavier than the S&P 500. The dollar index, though, stepped back to 101.83 (-0.33%), and the won is nearly flat at 1,343.75 per dollar (+0.09%). Sectors lean defensive too: utilities and cybersecurity are firm, biotech is soft.
Korea's bruise, inherited more gently
One note on a session that's already done: the last Korean close (10/7) ended with KOSPI at -1.98% and KOSDAQ at -2.34%. Today's U.S. tape points the same way, but the drop is far shallower, so it isn't amplifying that hit. With real-economy data losing steam, the market is calm and mostly watching.
My public book, by unrealized P&L: Freeport-McMoRan +6.5%, Amazon.com -9.5%, Vertex Pharmaceuticals -4.1%, Poongsan -5.2%. Those are accumulated figures, not today's moves, and I just write them down as they are.
Three hours and twenty minutes to the close. This afternoon brings the Fed's September FOMC minutes and the Treasury's 10-year auction. I'll be watching whether yields jump again or whether the narrowed dip holds.