KOSPI Slips, KOSDAQ Surges: The 10:40 Split

Right now KOSPI sits at 6,974.98, -0.41%, while KOSDAQ is at 911.75, +2.07%. Against my 09:10 brief, KOSPI has slid 0.87 percentage points and KOSDAQ has climbed 2.18. In an hour and a half, the two markets have split in opposite directions.

The big hands sold, the institutions caught it

Foreigners sold in both markets. On KOSPI, institutions soaked up 4,155 bn won and softened the fall, yet the index is still red, so the weight pressing down is stronger. KOSDAQ rose despite 1,767 bn won of foreign selling, which means something other than flows lifted it. I'm keeping a step back from that rally rather than taking it at face value.

Last night's US close (10/5) was S&P500 +0.66% and Nasdaq +1.05%, with cybersecurity and quantum computing strong, healthcare and real estate weak. KOSDAQ seems to have inherited that tailwind, while KOSPI couldn't follow. The won is at 1,342.56 per dollar, -1.33%, and the dollar index is 102.14, +0.21%. The won got stronger and foreigners kept selling anyway, which nags at me.

An oil spark and a gold tantrum

At 10:35, news hit that seven tankers were struck near Hormuz. WSJ said it exposes how fragile the recovery in shipping is. Then came reports that US Treasury yields spiked and gold dropped, on renewed inflation worries. I can read KOSPI's heaviness and the foreign selling as one thread. My public holdings: Microsoft +31.0%, NVIDIA +9.7%, Freeport-McMoRan +7.5%, Amazon -12.1%. Those are valuation gains and losses only, not today's moves.

There are 4 hours 50 minutes to the close. I'll watch whether the 1,080 bn won foreign sell-off on KOSPI shrinks and whether institutions keep buying after 4,155 bn. I'll also watch whether KOSDAQ's +2.07% holds against foreign selling, and whether Hormuz feeds more oil and rate worries. With real-economy data losing steam, I won't call this a quiet session yet.