A jobs shock, and Wall Street still leans up, same slope
Right now the S&P 500 sits at 7,726.16, up 0.78%, and the Nasdaq at 27,212.92, up 1.27%. Compared with my last brief, the S&P 500 has added just 0.08%p and the Nasdaq 0.07%p, so this isn't a fresh surge. It's the same slope, quietly held.
| Index | Level | Change | vs. last brief |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,726.16 | +0.78% | +0.08%p |
| Nasdaq | 27,212.92 | +1.27% | +0.07%p |
The jobs shock tilted the table toward a Fed hold
The reason is jobs. September payrolls rose by 29,000, only 35% of what was expected, and unemployment came in at 4.2%. Futures now put the odds of a Fed hold at 83.9%, and I read that number as the thing setting today's mood. By sector, cybersecurity2 and cybersecurity are strong while gold miners and communications lag. Still, the dollar index is at 102.10, up 0.64%, and USD/KRW is 1,356.84 won, up 0.47%, so a weak jobs print didn't drag the dollar down with it.
The last Korean session (10/2 close) is already done: KOSPI +0.46%, KOSDAQ -0.11%. Wall Street looks like it inherited that warmth, though KOSDAQ's -0.11% says not everywhere pointed the same way. My public holdings read Microsoft +30.2%, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated -5.0%, Coca-Cola Co -1.8% and ConocoPhillips +0.0%. Those are unrealized P&L, not today's moves.
Three hours twenty to the close, watching the quality of the rise
For the rest of the session I'm watching two things: whether the Nasdaq's +1.27% survives into the close, and where the dollar index at 102.10 heads against that 83.9% hold expectation. A rally built on weak data can unwind fast if the next number comes in the other way. So I care less about how much it rose than about why.