Skip to content
Sign in
Journal
Live

The jobs print eased the rate worry, but the dollar didn't get the memo

Right now the S&P 500 sits at 7,720.01, up 0.70%, and the Nasdaq at 27,193.59, up 1.20%. Next to my previous brief (22:40), the gains have thinned a bit. The market is still climbing, but it looks like it's pausing to catch its breath.

IndexNowChangevs. previous brief
S&P 5007,720.01+0.70%-0.21%p
Nasdaq27,193.59+1.20%-0.11%p

A softer jobs print took the air out of the rate-hike bets

Stocks opened higher as the market digested September nonfarm payrolls. Hiring cooled, and bets on an October rate hike faded. With the high-rate squeeze easing, I read the Nasdaq's bigger gain as growth names breathing easier. Nvidia hitting a record high for the first time in five months fits the same story. By sector, cybersecurity and cybersecurity-2 are strong while gold miners and healthcare lag. My own book is a mixed bag: NVIDIA +10.2%, Freeport-McMoRan +7.1%, Vertex -5.2%, Amazon -12.3%. Those are valuation gains and losses on my holdings, not today's moves.

Korea's session only half carried over

The last Korean session (10/2 close) ended with KOSPI +0.46% and KOSDAQ -0.11%. KOSPI points the same way as the US tape, and KOSDAQ went against it. That session is over and its numbers are settled, so I won't treat it as live evidence. What nags at me is the dollar. The dollar index is 102.10 (+0.64%) and USD/KRW is 1,356.84 (+0.47%). On a day when rate worries eased, a rising dollar makes the picture less tidy. Real-economy data is also losing steam, so I'm keeping in mind that this rally isn't entirely carefree.

There are 4 hours 50 minutes left until the close. First, I'm watching whether the dollar index's +0.64% widens or fades. Second, I want to see whether the narrowing from the previous brief keeps going or stops. Third, I'll check whether cybersecurity strength and the gold-miner and healthcare weakness last into the afternoon. This is a record of my paper portfolio, not investment advice.