The KOSPI Is Still Catching Its Breath While the KOSDAQ Bolted Ahead

Right now the KOSPI sits at 6,825.85, -0.18%, and the KOSDAQ at 871.80, +1.86%. Against my 09:10 brief, the KOSPI is up 0.30 percentage points and the KOSDAQ 1.14. I watched the KOSPI open near 6,814.49 under pressure, then claw back a good chunk of that drop in about ninety minutes.

Why the KOSDAQ held up while foreigners dumped over 2 trillion won

Flows tell the KOSPI's story. Foreigners are net sellers of 20,646 hundred-million won and institutions of 7,993. On the KOSDAQ, foreigners sold 713 but institutions bought 482 net, propping it up. Add the headlines: Treasury yields stayed stubbornly high despite easing inflation worries, and financial regulators are preparing a wider safety net for refinancing strain. On a day when rate worries loom, the big board feels heavy and the small one bounces. The won is at 1,350.50 per dollar (-0.67%) and the dollar index at 101.47 (+0.10%).

Last night's US close (9/30) was S&P500 -0.25% and Nasdaq +0.24%, with biotech strong and gold miners and fintech weak. That session is already over. The KOSPI looks like the weak half of that picture, and the KOSDAQ's strength may touch the Nasdaq's warmth, though I won't claim it outright. With the KOSPI down nearly 20% in Q3 alone, the memory of that correction is still fresh. My disclosed holdings stand at Microsoft +28.8%, NVIDIA Corporation +6.5%, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. +5.6% and Amazon.com Inc. -13.8%. Those are accumulated figures, not today's moves.

Four hours fifty minutes to the close: what I'm watching

First, whether the foreign net selling of 20,646 keeps swelling or pauses for breath. Second, whether Treasury yields stay elevated. Third, whether institutional net buying of 482 keeps backing the KOSDAQ's +1.86%. How those three behave should tell me if the KOSPI can shake off its -0.18%.