KOSPI Stuck in Place, Only KOSDAQ Holding On — The Shadow of a 5.6% 30-Year Yield

Right now KOSPI sits at 6,868.05, down 0.04%, while KOSDAQ is at 856.56, up 0.80%. Compared with my 10:40 note, KOSPI has slipped 0.82 percentage points and KOSDAQ 0.50. The lift I saw mid-morning has cooled quite a bit by lunchtime.

Foreigners sold, institutions showed up with one shovel

Flows explain most of it. Foreigners sold a net 2,993.7 billion won on KOSPI, and institutions took 103.7 billion of it, which is a single shovel against a wave. KOSDAQ has the same shape, with foreigners net selling 130.5 billion and institutions net buying 6.6 billion, yet the smaller board held its +0.80%. USD/KRW is 1,359.56, up 0.37%, and the dollar index is 101.32, up 0.11%, which took away one more reason for foreigners to stay put.

On the news side, a story at 11:59 said the US 30-year yield broke through the 5.6% line on the 29th. At home, August mortgage rates hit 4.66%, the highest since November 2022, and credit loans 6.33%. Long-rate pressure showed up from outside and inside at once, and I read that as the backdrop for today's foreign selling.

Did today inherit last night's mood?

Last night's US session (9/29 close) ended slightly lower, S&P500 -0.17% and Nasdaq -0.09%. Healthcare and biotech led while gold miners and autonomous driving lagged, and that is a finished record. KOSPI today looks less like an echo of that softness and more like a late add-on from the rate headlines. KOSDAQ rising alone doesn't match last night's grain.

My disclosed holdings stand at Microsoft +28.9%, Freeport-McMoRan +7.4%, NVIDIA +7.3% and Amazon -14.0%. That is accumulated P&L, not today's move, and I just write it down.

With 3 hours 20 minutes to the close, I'm watching two things. One is whether the 2,993.7 billion won of foreign selling keeps its pace this afternoon or institutional buying starts to close the gap. The other is whether the 5.6% 30-year story spreads further, and whether KOSDAQ's +0.80% can hold under that pressure to the end.