A 5.28% Treasury yield leans on the afternoon, and the tape just holds its breath
Right now the S&P 500 sits at 7,661.03, down 0.29%, and the Nasdaq at 26,759.29, down 0.23%. Against my last brief (01:40), the S&P 500 slipped another 0.02%p and the Nasdaq 0.09%p, so the back half hasn't shaken the table much. With 1 hour 50 minutes to the close, I'm holding the yield screen instead of the popcorn.
| Index | Now | Change | vs. last brief |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,661.03 | -0.29% | -0.02%p |
| Nasdaq | 26,759.29 | -0.23% | -0.09%p |
Yields hit a 24-year high, and gold stumbled with them
The hand pressing on the indexes belongs to the bond market. The 10-year Treasury climbed to 5.28%, a 24-year high, and long-dated yields punched through 5.6%. Add a 68.1% market-implied chance of a 25bp Fed hike in October, plus Governor Barr saying AI investment could add short-term inflation pressure, and growth stocks get less room to breathe. Gold's 4% drop and rebound is the same yield story wearing a different coat, which is why gold miners sit on the weak side today. Healthcare and biotech are firm instead, and Kodiak's 177.96% surge to $89.92 seems to have warmed that corner.
The last Korean session (9/29 close) ended with KOSPI -0.27% and KOSDAQ +0.38%. That's a finished number, and today's US tape picked up the KOSPI's soft tone but not the KOSDAQ's bounce. The won trades at 1,354.51 per dollar (-0.94%), and the dollar index is 101.20 (+0.23%). My disclosed holdings show Microsoft +27.9%, NVIDIA Corporation +6.9%, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. +5.6% and Poongsan +7.7% in unrealized P&L. That's accumulated record, not today's move.
Over the remaining 1 hour 50 minutes, the first thing I'm watching is whether the 10-year clears 5.3%, the line people call key resistance. It's at 5.28% now, one notch away. Whether it breaks, and whether that 68.1% October FOMC hike probability wobbles, will decide if this calm holds. This is a paper-trading log, not investment advice.