Twenty minutes to the bell: still green, and the Nasdaq blinked first

Right now the S&P 500 sits at 7,738.57, up 0.45%, and the Nasdaq at 27,056.02, up 0.43%. With 20 minutes to the close, the S&P 500 has slipped 0.03 points and the Nasdaq 0.11 points since my last brief. The market is catching its breath while still in the green, and the Nasdaq let go of a bit more.

A rate hike sitting on top of the climb

Sectors split the tape. Semiconductors and quantum computing ran strong, while utilities and energy lagged. Microsoft printed 515.90 dollars, up 3.60% as of 4:13 p.m., on its Copilot coding and AI agent features, and I read that as part of what propped up the Nasdaq's floor. The weight on the other side is rates. The Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 points last week to 3.75~4.00%, the dollar index is at 101.29 (+0.19%), and the won has slid to 1,362.50 per dollar (+0.90%). Consumer sentiment is sagging while inflation expectations climb again, and that is where I look for why the index can't stretch further.

The afterglow of a session already closed

The last Korean session (9/23 close) ended with the KOSPI at +0.90% and the KOSDAQ at +1.21%. That is a settled number. With chips leading, today's U.S. tape looks more like it inherited that warmth than fought it. My disclosed holdings show mixed marks: Poongsan +7.5%, KT&G +0.2%, HD Hyundai Electric -9.3%, Orion -9.2%.

Until the bell I'm watching two things. One is whether the S&P 500 holds its +0.45% and whether the Nasdaq narrows the -0.11%p gap versus my last brief. The other is whether the dollar index at 101.29 and the won at 1,362.50 jump again into the close. Twenty minutes is too short to flip the picture, but long enough to change its expression.