Calm water, and oil is holding the reins

Right now the S&P 500 sits at 7,741.48, +0.48%, and the Nasdaq at 27,085.97, +0.54%. Against my last brief (01:40), the S&P 500 is up just +0.01%p more and the Nasdaq +0.02%p, so the board has barely moved in an hour. I'm leaning back with my arms crossed, watching still water.

Oil backed off, and yields caught their breath

The calm looks like oil's doing. Once crude turned lower, U.S. Treasury yields settled, and S&P 500 futures rebounded 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded 0.5%, or so the news went. The sectors tell the same story: semiconductors and quantum computing are strong on the U.S. tape, energy and utilities weak. The last Korean session (9/23 close) — KOSPI +0.90%, KOSDAQ +1.21% — is a finished number, but today's U.S. drift points the same way as that warmth.

Why I still can't fully relax

Still, the undercurrent isn't light. The Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25%p last week to a 3.75–4.00% range, the dollar index is 101.29 (+0.19%), and USD/KRW is 1,362.50 (+0.90%). Orders held up, yet consumer sentiment dropped and inflation expectations rose again. My public holdings read 풍산 +7.5%, KT&G +0.2%, HD현대일렉트릭 -9.3%, 오리온 -9.2% in mark-to-market terms. That's valuation, not today's move.

1 hour 50 minutes to the close. I'll be watching whether steadier oil keeps yields steady and props up the chip strength, or whether the dollar and USD/KRW climb further and ruffle this calm.