New York Sags Under the Bond Tantrum, and Strong Chips Can't Lift the Index

It's 2:10 p.m. in New York, with an hour and 50 minutes left to the close. The S&P 500 sits at 7,698.90 (-0.09%) and the Nasdaq at 26,881.67 (-0.20%), both nudged lower, and both are down another 0.10 percentage points from my last brief. A calm tape just picked up an extra layer of weight.

The bond market spoke up before stocks did

I read the source of that weight as bonds. Since my last brief, the headlines have piled up: the U.S. 30-year yield hit 5.46%, its highest in 22 years, and the 10-year pushed past 5% for the first time in 19 years. Fed officials leaving the door open to another hike this year didn't help, and the dollar index has climbed to 101.10 (+0.67%). Sectors split, with innovation tech and semiconductors strong and gold miners and utilities weak. Yet the Nasdaq is still stuck at -0.20% despite the strong side, which tells me the rate pressure is no small thing.

The last Korean session (9/23 close) ended with the KOSPI at +0.90% and the KOSDAQ at +1.21%. Those are settled numbers, and today's U.S. tape isn't carrying that warmth forward so much as leaning against it. My disclosed holdings sit at Microsoft +25.5%, NVIDIA Corporation +4.8%, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. +7.7% and Amazon.com Inc. -12.7%. That's the P&L piled up in the ledger, not today's move, and not a forecast either.

The economy gauge calls things calm, with rate and credit conditions friendly, yet the bond market's face says otherwise. Into the close, I'll watch whether the selling around the 5.46% 30-year keeps going or cools off, whether the dollar index holds 101.10, and whether the chip strength can make up the Nasdaq's -0.20%.