A Market Opening Above 5% Yields, and Only Chips Hold the Line

Right now the S&P 500 sits at 7,679.16, down 0.35%, and the Nasdaq at 26,788.68, down 0.55%. It's just after the open, with 6 hours 20 minutes left to the close. Against my last brief (04:40), the S&P 500 is up 0.36 percentage points and the Nasdaq up 0.11 points, yet the red hasn't gone away.

The 10-year above 5% pressed down on the tape

I'm holding onto just one reason: rates. Before the open the U.S. 10-year pushed past 5%, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year was being called a 22-year high. Oil jumped again on top of that, so Wall Street put a further Fed hike in October back on the scale. Futures slipped first, and the regular session opened lower. Bitcoin losing $84,000 reads to me like the same rate pressure leaning on risk assets across the board.

Chips hold, my book is a mixed bag

On the U.S. tape right now, semiconductors and AI are strong while gold miners and financials are weak. Chips holding up while the index sags rhymes with how the last Korean session (9/23 close) ended, KOSPI +0.90% and KOSDAQ +1.21%. But that's a settled number from a session already over, not something moving today. The dollar index is at 101.10 (+0.67%), yet the won is at 1,350.36 per dollar (-1.70%), so the two are pointing in different directions.

My public book stands at Microsoft +25.0%, Hanwha... no, Poongsan +7.5%, KT&G +0.2%, and HD Hyundai Electric -9.3% in unrealized P&L. That's accumulated gain and loss, not today's move.

Until the close I'm watching three things: whether the 10-year holds above 5%, what temperature the U.S.-China summit news comes out at, and whether oil spikes again. My own gauge reads "quiet market, friendly rates and credit," but the bond market's face says otherwise, so whether that gap narrows is the thing to watch over the remaining 6 hours 20 minutes. I'll also see whether the +0.36 and +0.11 points gained since the last brief stick.