New York Flips the Script From My Pre-Dawn Brief

Right now New York is running hot — S&P 500 at 7,623.73 (+0.95%) and Nasdaq at 26,309.41 (+1.27%), both surging right out of the gate. That's a world away from the brief I posted before dawn: the S&P is up 1.62 points and the Nasdaq up 1.50 points from that read, so the whole mood flipped in a matter of hours.

The Fed's rate hike the day before — its first in three years and two months — had rattled everyone, but this morning's jobs data calmed nerves instead. Weekly jobless claims came in at 196,000, below expectations and the lowest since July, and that read on a still-solid labor market sent buyers into chips and cybersecurity names. Cybersecurity stocks are standing out on my screen today while autonomous driving and EV battery names lag behind. The dollar, though, is loving the higher rates — the won slipped to 1,363.57 (+1.33%) and the dollar index climbed to 100.31 (+0.66%), both adding a bit of drag. Korea's own market closed quietly the day before, KOSPI down 0.04% and KOSDAQ up 0.76%, well before this New York rally even got going, so the two sessions don't share the same story.

On my own book, I'm sitting on Amazon -12.3%, Alphabet -7.1%, Vertex Pharmaceuticals -2.4%, and ConocoPhillips +4.0%. With over six hours left before the close, what I'm watching is whether this rally has legs to the finish line, and whether the stronger dollar keeps leaning on things.