Twenty minutes to the bell: KOSPI +3.20%, but it was breathing harder than at 13:40
As of 15:10, KOSPI sits at 5,644.41, up 3.20%, and KOSDAQ at 743.37, up 2.22%. It looks like a big rally, but next to the 13:40 brief KOSPI has shaved off 0.52%p and KOSDAQ 0.56%p. I read that as a pause for breath, not a break.
Foreigners eased off a step, institutions held the floor
In KOSPI, foreigners still hold a 372.9 billion won net buy, but 10.4 billion won of net selling piled on since the last brief. Institutions filled the gap with a 507.2 billion won net buy. KOSDAQ went the other way: foreigners added 24.4 billion won to reach a 24.5 billion won net buy, and institutions bought 144.8 billion won net, so the index gave back some but the base got firmer.
| Group | Foreigners | Institutions |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 372.9bn won net buy | 507.2bn won net buy |
| KOSDAQ | 24.5bn won net buy | 144.8bn won net buy |
Last night's US close (10/26) was S&P 500 +0.70% and Nasdaq +0.82%, and today's session carried that on. But that's a finished, settled number; what's moving now is flows. The won at 1,321.76 per dollar (-0.32%) also eased the load on foreign money.
The news hung a warning light more than it added fuel
Former BOK governor Lee Chang-yong called the semiconductor supercycle a stroke of luck, yet flagged the concentration risk and the chance of higher global rates. The dollar index ticking up to 101.96 (+0.15%) rhymes with that. In my own public book, ConocoPhillips at +19.3% holds the line while Hyundai Rotem at -29.0% and Shinhan Financial at -7.8% weigh (Vertex is at -2.4%). Those are unrealized P&L figures, not today's moves.
With 20 minutes to the close, I'm watching two things: whether KOSPI foreign net buying slips further from 372.9 billion won, and whether KOSDAQ's 24.5 billion won holds through the closing auction. Whether an institution-propped rally lasts to the bell is up to those numbers.