Open plus a few minutes, Nasdaq -0.88%: breathing easier than at dawn, but the inflation shock is still here

Right now I'm looking at the S&P 500 at 7,696.20 (-0.29%) and the Nasdaq at 26,458.70 (-0.88%). Compared with my 04:40 note, the S&P is up 0.90 points and the Nasdaq up 1.05 points. Much of the dawn damage has been clawed back, but we're still standing in negative territory.

Two inflation punches in a row

The reason narrows to one thread. After yesterday's consumer prices, September producer prices rose 1.3% month on month, the biggest jump in four-plus years, with energy costs from the US-Iran war cited as the backdrop. Once talk of a Fed hike at its late-month meeting spread, chips and AI names were hit first, even before the open. Not even TSMC's strong earnings stopped the selling, which is why the Nasdaq hurts more than the S&P today.

The sector tape tells the same story: energy and staples holding, semiconductors and AI soft. Retail sales rose 0.8%, beating expectations, but strip out gasoline and spending looks like it's cooling. The won at 1,340.31 per dollar (+0.46%) and the dollar index at 102.55 (+0.36%) lean the same risk-off way.

The scar from a Korean session already closed

In the Korean session that just ended (10/15 close), KOSPI finished -7.57% and KOSDAQ -7.65%. That's a settled record. Today's US session isn't simply inheriting that fear; it opened with a smaller drop. My public holdings stand at Microsoft +35.9%, NVIDIA +0.9%, Freeport-McMoRan +0.3% and Amazon -12.6%, which are valuation gains and losses, not today's moves.

There are 6 hours 20 minutes to the close. I'll watch whether the index holds the ground it recovered from the dawn low, and whether the chip and AI weakness pushes the Nasdaq's drop wider again. With the Fed meeting on the 28th ahead, whether rate-hike expectations harden or soften will shape the back half of the session.